By Ryan Miner
A Super PAC formed to support Amie Hoeber’s congressional campaign is touting a new poll that places Hoeber and the incumbent Democrat, John Delaney, in a “statistical dead heat.” The Super PAC, Maryland USA, formed in July 2015 and chaired by Joel Ritter – a veteran political consultant and Super PAC expert – announced today that it hired Tel Opinion Research to conduct a poll to gauge the level of support for Hoeber in Maryland’s 6th Congressional District.
The poll, according to Maryland USA’s news release, was “conducted between May 18th and 20th of 600 registered voters who are likely to vote in this year’s general election.” The results of the poll, according to the news release, “revealed that Amie Hoeber, who is a successful businesswoman and has never held elected office, has a real opportunity to upset John Delaney who has been an avid supporter of President Obama and a long-time ally of Hillary Clinton. The poll’s Margin of Error is +/-4.”
The poll claims that of those surveyed, Hoeber sits at 38% compared to Delaney’s 40%; George Gluck, a perennial Green Party candidate, is at 4%. According to the news release, 19% of voters remain undecided.
The news release states:
“For statistical purposes, Hoeber is tied with Delaney, even though 39% of those surveyed had not yet had the opportunity to learn about Amie Hoeber. Delaney was found to be vulnerable on several issues including his support of the Iran nuclear deal and his past business practices,” remarked Tel Opinion Research CEO Bill Lee, according to Maryland USA’s news release. “Our polling showed that if voters are informed about Delaney’s pro-Iran policies and his past business dealings and are educated about Amie Hoeber’s record on jobs and fighting terrorism, Amie Hoeber will be victorious in November.”
Tel Opinion Research, according to its website, is a Republican polling and market research firm that helped “re-elect Maine Governor Paul LePage and continued [our] work on behalf of Governor Pat McCrory of North Carolina.” The company is run by Barry Zeplowitz, a New York-based pollster, and Bill Lee, a national political and grassroots consultant.
Maryland USA’s news release did not indicate whether voters in Maryland’s 6th District were actually surveyed, nor did it provide any specific demographic details with respect to whom was polled – and where. I reached out, via email, to Michael Leavitt, Maryland USA’s spokesman, for more details about the poll’s findings. As soon as I speak with Mr. Leavitt, I will report the details of my conversation to add to this report.
With little insight into the poll outside of what was released by the pro-Hoeber Super PAC, I cannot say with any certainty whether the results are credible. Hoeber is still widely unknown among Democratic and Independent voters in Maryland’s 6th Congressional District, however; even with his obvious scurry of congressional election-year activity in the last six months, Rep. John Delaney is debilitatingly unpopular among Republicans, Independents, and even some Democrats.
Last Saturday, Bill and Holly Proctor held a house party for Delaney at their home in Hagerstown. Multiple sources who attended Delaney’s Hagerstown house party and who wish to remain anonymous reported that the party was a “total bust” and had a “poor showing.” Sources who attended the party sent me a dozen or more text messages to report that Delaney volunteers and paid Delaney campaign staffers are taking serious the threat that Amie Hoeber poses to upsetting Delaney this November. Delaney staffers have apparently told multiple Democratic volunteers that they are worried a Hoeber upset over Delaney will harm his potential gubernatorial bid in 2018.
Several CD-6 Democrats have also relayed to me that Delaney’s specious attacks on both Hoeber and Gov. Larry Hogan with regards to the Republican Party’s presumptive Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, have fallen flat. Hoeber has said on the record that she will support whoever emerges as the Republican nominee.
Recently – as early as January of this year – John Delaney and his wife, April, hosted a political fundraiser at their Potomac home featuring presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Delaney, who is heavily flirting with the idea of running a 2018 gubernatorial campaign, is leading the charge for Hillary Clinton in Maryland and serving as her top congressional surrogate. Delaney’s unabashed support and embrace of Hillary Clinton is already proving problematic for the liberal congressman all throughout the 6th Congressional District, where the former Obama secretary of state is deeply unpopular.
On the surface, Hoeber has a real shot to upset John Delaney this November. The growing national fervor against establishment politicians in the likes of John Delaney should bolster Hoeber’s, a political outsider, chances to oust the liberal incumbent this fall.
However – and this is a biggie – it would be wise of Hoeber to initiate an urgent staffing shakeup; it’s an absolute necessity that she choose a Maryland-based campaign manager, grassroots staffers, and a campaign team who fundamentally understand the 6th Congressional District and its fantastic people. Without staffers, volunteers and grassroots activists from the 6th Congressional District – especially Western Maryland – Hoeber may very well likely fall short of her goal to defeat John Delaney this fall. I cannot emphasize this point enough.
Below is Maryland USA’s news release in full announcing the poll results:
Maryland USA spokesman and Senior Advisor Michael Leavitt announced today the results of a new poll in the race to represent Maryland’s 6th Congressional District. Mr. Leavitt said, “the poll results we have today demonstrate that voters in the Maryland 6th Congressional District are poised to reject the status quo and are ready to elect political outsider Amie Hoeber to the U.S. House of Representatives.”
Leavitt further remarked, “This continues the trend we saw in 2014 with the election of Governor Hogan. Maryland voters want elected officials with solutions who are willing to work with both sides of the aisle to get things done. They are tired of the partisan bickering that continues to result in government gridlock. 67% percent of those surveyed believe that the best way to change Washington is to change the people we send to Washington.”
Maryland USA commissioned Tel Opinion Research to conduct a public opinion survey of the Maryland 6th contest between incumbent Democrat John Delaney, outsider Republican Amie Hoeber, and Green Party candidate George Gluck.
The poll conducted between May 18th and 20th of 600 registered voters who are likely to vote in this year’s general election revealed that Amie Hoeber, who is a successful businesswoman and has never held elected office, has a real opportunity to upset John Delaney who has been an avid supporter of President Obama and a long-time ally of Hillary Clinton. The poll’s Margin of Error is +/-4.
The ballot test in the survey showed Hoeber at 38%, Delaney at 40%, and Gluck at 4% of the vote with 19% still undecided. “For statistical purposes, Hoeber is tied with Delaney, even though 39% of those surveyed had not yet had the opportunity to learn about Amie Hoeber. Delaney was found to be vulnerable on several issues including his support of the Iran nuclear deal and his past business practices.” remarked Tel Opinion Research CEO Bill Lee. “Our polling showed that if voters are informed about Delaney’s pro Iran policies and his past business dealings and are educated about Amie Hoeber’s record on jobs and fighting terrorism, Amie Hoeber will be victorious in November.”
“Maryland USA has focused on introducing Amie Hoeber to a broad section of the electorate and today’s poll results show our plan is working. Hoeber begins the general election in a strong position with a path to victory.” said Mr. Leavitt.
Maryland USA is a federal Super PAC registered with the Federal Elections Commission and was established to independently support Amie Hoeber and give her a fighting chance against former investment banker John Delaney (one of the wealthiest members of Congress) and the support he will continue to receive from his friends on Wall Street and Hillary Clinton.
For more information contact Michael Leavitt at 410-934-7828 or firstname.lastname@example.org
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