Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) maintains a slim majority of support among Maryland residents, even as only half believe Maryland is heading in the wrong direction, according to a new poll released Tuesday, Feb. 25.
The University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC) Institute of Politics survey found that 52% of Maryland adults approve of Moore’s job performance, while 40% disapprove and 7% don’t know.
Simultaneously, 49% of respondents said the state is on the wrong track, compared to 42% who believe Maryland is moving in the right direction.
Click the following to review the PDF of the UMBC Poll, Part 1 – February 2025.
Wes Moore’s Approval Rating Tanks
While 79% of Democrats approve of Moore’s performance, only 16% of Republicans and 37% of unaffiliated voters view his work favorably.
The governor faces particular challenges with independent voters, with 53% expressing disapproval of his job performance.
Mr. Moore’s struggle to maintain broad approval comes at a critical juncture in his administration as he navigates a significant budget shortfall and persistent economic concerns among state residents.
His narrow majority approval rating signals erosion in his political standing since taking office with significant momentum. His inability to win over independent voters – who comprise nearly a quarter of the state’s electorate – represents a concerning trend for his administration.
With approval from just 37% of these crucial swing voters and majority disapproval among this group, Moore appears increasingly dependent on his Democratic base at a time when broad coalition-building is essential for advancing his legislative agenda.
This weakening position among independents could foreshadow further challenges as the governor navigates contentious budget negotiations.
Mr. Moore’s struggle to maintain broad approval comes at a critical juncture in his administration as he navigates a significant budget shortfall and persistent economic concerns among state residents.
Progressive College Professor Mileah Kromer Spins Latest Poll Results in Moore’s Favor – But Is This Reality?
Dr. Mileah Kromer, director of the UMBC Institute of Politics, characterized the results positively, stating, “Gov. Wes Moore earns support from a majority of Marylanders during a time of tough budgetary choices and public pessimism about the state’s economic conditions.”
“His approval rating is buoyed by his political base—nearly 80 percent of Democrats support the job he’s doing,” Kromer said.
However, a deeper analysis of the poll numbers reveals a more nuanced and potentially concerning picture for the governor.
Moore’s 52% approval rating represents the barest of majorities and comes almost entirely from his Democratic base. His support among independents sits at just 37%, with a majority (53%) disapproving of his performance.
This weakness among swing voters — who represent nearly a quarter of Maryland’s electorate — undermines Kromer’s assertion that Moore has broad support across the electorate.
Furthermore, the characterization that Moore maintains support “during tough budgetary choices” overlooks that these fiscal challenges emerged during his administration and may have contributed to voter dissatisfaction.
Economic Pessimism Appears to be Driving Dissatisfaction Among Maryland Residents
Just 31% of the poll’s respondents rate Maryland’s economic conditions as “excellent” or “good,” while a substantial 67% consider them “poor” or “fair.”
Within those negative assessments, 29% categorized the state’s economy as “poor,” signaling deep concerns about Maryland’s economic health.
The survey indicates the Moore administration faces a challenging political landscape as it approaches decisions on the $3 billion budget deficit.
When asked how to address this shortfall, 45% of respondents prefer a combination of spending cuts and tax increases.
Another 37% want the solution to come primarily through spending cuts, while just 12% favor addressing the deficit primarily through tax increases.
These budget preferences highlight the difficult choices ahead for Mr. Moore’s administration, which must balance fiscal responsibility with maintaining essential services and fulfilling campaign promises on education, public safety, and economic development.
A Political Opportunity for Larry Hogan – A Return to the Maryland State House
Gov. Moore’s weakening position among independents could create a significant opening for popular former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan in 2026.
Mr. Hogan, who invariably maintained high approval ratings throughout his two terms as a moderate Republican in a heavily Democratic state, could leverage Mr. Moore’s worsening struggles in a potential 2026 matchup that would mirror his surprise 2014 victory over then-Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown.
In that race, Mr. Hogan capitalized on economic discontent and tax fatigue to become just the second Republican governor elected in Maryland in nearly 50 years, despite Democrats’ 2-to-1 registration advantage in the state.
According to Maryland political insiders, Mr. Hogan is mulling a 2026 gubernatorial bid.
Widespread Concern Over Trump Administration’s Federal Workforce Cuts
The poll also underscores widespread concern about the Trump administration’s plan to significantly reduce the federal workforce, with 61% of Marylanders anticipating a “mostly negative impact” on the state.
Just 24% believe the federal workforce reduction would positively affect Maryland, while 10% expect no real impact.
This finding reflects anxiety about potential economic ripple effects in a state where federal employment plays a substantial economic role.
Maryland Tax Policy
Tax policy emerges as another area of interest, with 63% of Marylanders preferring a progressive state income tax system where higher earners pay higher rates.
Only 30% favor a flat tax system where all residents pay the same rate regardless of income.
These preferences may inform upcoming legislative debates as lawmakers consider revenue options to address the budget deficit.
Crime Reduction, Public Safety, & Improving K-12 Public Education Rank High
The survey also highlights Marylanders’ priorities for state government.
Reducing crime and improving public safety topped the list, with 77% of respondents rating it as a “high price. ” This was followed closely by improving K-12 education, at 74%.
Other key concerns include addressing healthcare costs (67%), tackling high energy bills (65%), and housing affordability (63%). The cost of taxes and fees was rated a high priority by 62% of respondents.
Economic growth and development (59%), environmental protection (49%), road quality (42%), and public transportation (34%) were lower on the priority list.
Wes Moore Under Intense Pressure to Address State Budget Shortfall
The poll’s findings suggest Mr. Moore’s administration faces significant pressure from Marylanders to address multiple high-stakes issues simultaneously while operating under considerable budget constraints.
Trust in government remains a persistent challenge, though Marylanders express more confidence in state leadership than federal authorities.
Only 41% said they trust the state government “just about always” or “most of the time,” compared to a meager 19% who said the same about the federal government.
A majority of Marylanders (56%) trust state government “only some of the time” or “never,” while an overwhelming 76% express similar skepticism toward federal authorities.
These trust deficits complicate Moore’s ability to build support for potentially difficult policy choices ahead, particularly those involving taxes or spending cuts.
These results paint a picture of a governor who maintains support from his base but faces significant challenges in unifying a state divided along partisan lines and worried about economic conditions. The data suggests that Moore must address pocketbook issues and public safety concerns to broaden his appeal beyond his Democratic base.”
The poll results come as Moore approaches key decision points on his legislative agenda and budget priorities. His ability to navigate these challenges while maintaining public support will likely shape both his immediate political standing and long-term prospects.
UMBC Polling Methodology
The UMBC Poll surveyed 803 Maryland adults, including 769 registered voters, from Feb. 11 to 15, 2025.
The poll was conducted through a combination of live interviews and text-to-web methods utilizing a dual-frame random sample stratified by county.
Seventeen percent of interviews were conducted via landline telephone, while 83% were conducted via cellular phone, including 56% administered via text-to-web.
The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The Institute of Politics will release additional findings from this survey on Wednesday, February 26, and Thursday, February 27, focusing on other aspects of Maryland politics and policy.
